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NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
- Nemi Mehta is owning 50 Hectares of land near Junagadh. On his Farm, he cultivates Giloy, which is a medicinal plant in Ayurveda. The below-given table shows the sales of ‘Giloy Vati’ that his team is preparing as per one Ayurveda script (book), and the amount they spend on the Advertisement of it.
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
Nemi’s problem is to analyze the effect of Advertisement on sales. Firstly, He wants to understand the presence of a linear relationship between the sales and ‘amount spent in advertisement’. He also wants to run a correlation and regression to know whether he should keep spending money on Advertisements or not. If sales figures are not affected by advertisement, he should not spend money on it.
So, take the EXCEL output of the following and write the interpretation.
- Appropriate type of Graph which can exhibit the linear relation b/w variables.
- Karl Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient
- Regression Analysis
- Graph that shows predicted v/s actual sales figures.
| Sales | Advertising | ||
| Region code | (TV spots per | ||
| (INR 000s) | |||
| month) (in INR, 000s) | |||
| 1 | 260.3 | 5 | |
| 2 | 286.1 | 7 | |
| 3 | 279.4 | 6 | |
| 4 | 410.8 | 9 | |
| 5 | 438.2 | 12 | |
| 6 | 315.3 | 8 | |
| 7 | 565.1 | 11 | |
| 8 | 570.0 | 16 | |
| 9 | 426.1 | 13 | |
| 10 | 315.0 | 7 | |
| 11 | 403.6 | 10 | |
| 12 | 220.5 | 4 | |
| 13 | 343.6 | 9 | |
| 14 | 644.6 | 17 | |
| 15 | 520.4 | 19 | |
| 16 | 329.5 | 9 | |
| 17 | 426.0 | 11 | |
| 18 | 343.2 | 8 | |
| 19 | 450.4 | 13 | |
| 20 | 421.8 | 14 |
(10 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
- The table given below is the ‘single year age population’ (taken from census 2011).
This table shows the population of people (age-wise) living in Leh at the time of the census 2011 survey. Transform this ungrouped data into Grouped data by forming age groups (only five age groups), and then find out Mean, Variance, Standard deviation, Ogive, and Histogram. Write the summary based on your calculations.
| Age | Age | Age | Age | Age | |||||
| in | Populati | in | Populati | in | Populati | in | Populati | in | Populati |
| Yea | on | Yea | on | Yea | on | Yea | on | Yea | on |
| rs | rs | rs | rs | rs | |||||
| 11 | 1998 | 22 | 2839 | 33 | 2696 | 44 | 1652 | ||
| 1 | 1958 | 12 | 1916 | 23 | 2935 | 34 | 2781 | 45 | 1806 |
| 2 | 1725 | 13 | 2138 | 24 | 3601 | 35 | 2799 | 46 | 1460 |
| 3 | 1814 | 14 | 2139 | 25 | 4110 | 36 | 2450 | 47 | 1226 |
| 4 | 1768 | 15 | 2096 | 26 | 4089 | 37 | 2142 | 48 | 1225 |
| 5 | 1871 | 16 | 2044 | 27 | 3716 | 38 | 2114 | 49 | 1006 |
| 6 | 1888 | 17 | 2027 | 28 | 3702 | 39 | 1725 | 50 | 1454 |
| 7 | 1768 | 18 | 2065 | 29 | 3084 | 40 | 2218 | ||
| 8 | 1712 | 19 | 2013 | 30 | 3475 | 41 | 1802 | ||
| 9 | 1780 | 20 | 2459 | 31 | 2844 | 42 | 1751 | ||
| 10 | 1862 | 21 | 2594 | 32 | 2684 | 43 | 1659 |
Source: Data.Gov.in
(10 Marks)
3.a. The given table shows the rainfall of Gujarat Region. Forecast the rainfall using Exponential Smoothing. Use Alpha =0.2, 0.5 and 0.8. Data is available from 1997 to 2016, use this series for the calculation and forecast the rainfall for the year 2017. To know, what extent the prediction is correct, actual rainfall for 2017 (1024.4
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
millimeters) is provided. Based on MSE and MAD, find out which alpha values among the three suggestions are relatively near to actual value?
| SUBDIVISION | YEAR | ANNUAL (in MM) |
| Gujarat Region | 1997 | 1068.9 |
| Gujarat Region | 1998 | 1070 |
| Gujarat Region | 1999 | 568.4 |
| Gujarat Region | 2000 | 550.6 |
| Gujarat Region | 2001 | 849 |
| Gujarat Region | 2002 | 637.2 |
| Gujarat Region | 2003 | 1160.3 |
| Gujarat Region | 2004 | 1005.8 |
| Gujarat Region | 2005 | 1316.4 |
| Gujarat Region | 2006 | 1478 |
| Gujarat Region | 2007 | 1178.9 |
| Gujarat Region | 2008 | 911.1 |
| Gujarat Region | 2009 | 641.6 |
| Gujarat Region | 2010 | 1088.7 |
| Gujarat Region | 2011 | 890.5 |
| Gujarat Region | 2012 | 714 |
| Gujarat Region | 2013 | 1118.6 |
| Gujarat Region | 2014 | 705.7 |
| Gujarat Region | 2015 | 622.9 |
| Gujarat Region | 2016 | 764.9 |
Source: Data.Gov.in
(5 Marks)
NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for June 2021 Examination
3.b. A new gas-electric hybrid car has recently hit the market. The distance traveled on 1 gallon of fuel is normally distributed with a mean of 65 miles and a standard deviation of 4 miles. Find the probability of the following events. (show the concerned region by z curve)
- The car travels more than 70 miles per gallon.
- The car travels less than 60 miles per gallon.
- The car travels between 55 and 70 miles per gallon.
(5 Marks)
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